Is Black Friday Becoming Black November?

In the lead-up to Black Friday, many brands are preparing for an extended sales event, while analysts examine consumer trends in the pre-holiday season

In recent years, Black Friday has become more than a one-day event, bleeding into the rest of November, with some brands even starting their marketing in October.

As consumer shopping for the holiday period starts sooner each year, brands are reconfiguring their strategies, with a focus on building return customers.

Brands around the world must take precautions to meet consumer demand without putting themselves at risk of supply chain disruption.

Despite geopolitical and economic uncertainty being a concern for consumers and retailers alike, consumer sentiment around the holidays mirrors that of previous years.

However, many consumers have altered how they are shopping, beginning sooner and splitting their purchases across a larger period, rather than relying on a single day for deals.

As a result, businesses are changing strategies, creating prolonged Black Friday sales periods in the hope of boosting sales and the number of return customers. In its latest holiday research, McKinsey has drawn insights across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US, offering a roadmap for businesses to understand shifting consumer behaviours.

The study finds that, across the five European nations, 70% of consumers are intending to spend the same or more as they did in 2024. UK consumers in particular plan to spend more around the holidays (23%).

McKinsey examined when shoppers were planning to begin their holiday purchases, with 54% of respondents starting before the end of November. Overall, 13% of consumers plan to start shopping for the holidays on Black Friday itself, with Italian shoppers leading the charge at 21%.

Consumer holiday shopping plans (Credit: McKinsey)

Global trends

Shoppers across Europe have seen significant changes to their habits regarding Black Friday and holiday preparation.

Fintech company Scalapay has found that Italian consumers, in comparison to those in Spain and France, are feeling the pull towards Black Friday spend. This is partially increasing due to the rise in Buy Now, Pay Later availability, meaning consumers can tackle high shopping costs in instalments without missing out on deals.

"One lever of the success of Black Friday is based on trust: 73% of Italian users said they trust the discounted prices proposed by companies and when this trust is also supported by a flexible and transparent payment offer, the consumer has all the tools to be able to better manage their purchase,"

"Today, 42% of future Black Friday 2025 customers plan to pay for their purchases in instalments, many through BNPL, especially for smaller amounts." - Simone Mancini, CEO of Scalapay.

Consumer spend and trust differs according to location:

• In France, the average Black Friday spend in 2024 was at €170 (US$197), with only 29% consumers saying they trust Black Friday promotions

• In Spain, 2024's Black Friday saw an average spend of €164 (US$190) but trust was at 53%

• Italy saw the highest trust and the highest spend at €218 (US$252)

The shift represents a move away from Black Friday being a one-day event which dissolves into chaos, into a calmer season with planned and informed shopping experiences.

Logistics issues

Preparing for Black Friday sales takes a significant amount of planning. For many businesses, this event puts entire supply chains under pressure, with higher demands and less time to meet them. In 2024, parcel volumes across Europe grew by +93.7% during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, as opposed to the prior weeks.

Last year, online sales rose by 10% year-on-year, meaning retailers need to have flexible warehouse capacity in order to efficiently prepare for a delivery. Due to last-mile delays and fragmented logistics operations, delivery success on the first attempt fell from 95.5% to 95.2%, leaving thousands of customers facing delays.

Black Friday 2024 revealed a significant delay in meeting consumer expectations. Last-mile delivery delays increased by 70% during Black Friday week, showing that fulfilment networks across Europe could not meet demand.

Now, many companies have extended the events period, partially to increase the likelihood of consumer spend, but also to better maintain their operations. By increasing the time of the deals, companies are theoretically distributing their sales across a longer period, making it easier to meet demand.

South African Black Friday 2024 resulted in an estimated R88 billion boost to the economy, with a projected R22 billion in direct retailer revenue and R32.1 billion in additional wholesale sales. Spending was concentrated on essentials like groceries, but there was also significant online growth for beauty and electronics. While online spending increased, physical in-store transactions also saw a strong revival, with one report noting that in-store revenue more than doubled during the four-day period.

Overall economic impact of Black Friday 2024 in South Africa:

• R88 billion: Projected boost to the South African economy from the Black Friday season, according to a study commissioned by Capital Connect.

• R22 billion: Expected direct revenue for retailers during the period.

• R32.1 billion: Additional sales in the wholesale sector.

• R6.2 billion: Additional fuel sales generated.

Spending and consumer behavior:

• R30 billion: The approximate total spent across just three major banks on Black Friday, indicating record-breaking consumer spending.

• Capitec customers alone spent: R25.4 billion.

• Consumer Confidence Index: Rose to its highest festive season level since pre-COVID, driven by improved spending ability.

• Spending focus: Essentials like food and drink dominated spending, but beauty and electronics also saw significant growth online.

• Price sensitivity: Consumers are savvier and expect deals, leading retailers to start promotions earlier.

Online vs. in-store:

• Strong in-store revival: The four-day Black Friday to Cyber Monday window saw in-store revenue more than double compared to the previous year, contributing 11.1% of total holiday revenue.

• Increased online transactions: E-commerce transactions jumped from 7.9% to 10.3% during the four-day period, a 30.4% increase.

• Average transaction value: The average online basket size was R949, almost double the in-store average of R509.

Digital payment trends

• Increased digital payments: Smart device payments accounted for nearly 45% of in-store transactions.

• Virtual card use: Doubled for both online and in-store purchases, indicating a rise in convenience and security.

South African Black Friday 2025 statistics show shoppers are preparing early, with 94% starting their search for deals weeks in advance and 73% preferring retailers that disclose early offers. Online shopping is dominant, as 94% of respondents plan to shop online and 67% of 2024 transactions were mobile-based. Spending patterns indicate significant consumer engagement, with 57% of surveyed shoppers planning to spend over R2,500, though some expect spending to be focused on essentials due to financial pressure.

Source: Supply Chain Digital