Jet Fuel Crisis: What it Means for Air Cargo Supply Chains

Flight cuts and soaring jet fuel costs highlight structural vulnerabilities in airline networks, reshaping cargo capacity, rates and global logistics.

Global air cargo networks are under pressure as rising jet fuel costs and geopolitical tensions expose structural vulnerabilities in airline operations.

Major carriers such as United Airlines, Scandinavian Airlines and Air New Zealand are trimming schedules, affecting cargo capacity and increasing logistical complexity for companies relying on fast international shipments.

For supply chain planners, the implications go beyond immediate flight cancellations.

Aircraft belly space, long a flexible component of freight networks, is shrinking, leading to a variety of problems including tighter cargo availability, higher rates and extended delivery times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rq87YILwbus

These pressures underscore the fragility of air freight as a channel and highlight the need for dynamic planning across logistics networks.

More and more flagship airlines are being affected by the fuel crisis amid the Iran war.

United Airlines has warned it could face up to US$11 bn in additional fuel costs if prices remain at current levels.

May and June disruptions

Chief Executive Scott Kirby says the carrier may remove “some off-peak and overnight routes” to limit financial exposure, illustrating how operational decisions ripple through global supply chains.

Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary adds that European carriers face potential jet fuel supply disruptions if the Iran war continues. “We don’t expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June,” he says.

Scandinavian Airlines has already cancelled about 1,000 flights this month, mostly affecting short-haul regional services.

In the Asia Pacific region, Air New Zealand plans to cut around 5% of its flights from May, while Vietnam Airlines and other carriers are also reducing schedules.

Cargo airlines are not immune. The closure of key Middle East airspace has forced longer flight routes, increasing fuel burn, crew costs and freight pricing.

Supply chain teams now face a landscape in which operational shocks at the airline level propagate rapidly through global logistics networks.

Jet fuel prices have climbed sharply amid constrained crude supply and geopolitical uncertainty. Brent crude is trading above $100 per barrel, while jet fuel prices approached a historic $195 per barrel in late March.

The combination of elevated fuel costs and lean inventories makes airlines highly sensitive to supply shocks, emphasizing systemic fragility rather than temporary disruption.

Several carriers have introduced fuel surcharges or raised fares to offset costs, a move likely to filter through to freight rates. Analysts warn that persistent volatility could reshape air cargo economics, forcing planners to rethink budgeting, route selection and delivery timelines.

As we said at the beginning of the year, if the last few years have taught us anything, it's that volatility and disruption are more the norm than the outlier. 2026 is proving this to be true once again.

Source: Supply Chain Digital

Video Source: YouTube