Trade Turmoil Tops List of Supply Chain Risks in 2026

Trade regulations and geopolitical turmoil are among the most prominent supply chain risks in 2026, as shifting tariffs, regional conflicts and political uncertainty continue to complicate global commerce.

A report from risk intelligence company Everstream Analytics assessed geopolitical fragmentation at the highest threat level of any supply chain risk for the new year, with recent events in Venezuela underscoring the speed at which shipping and trade can shift on a dime. Over the last year, companies have also been forced to adjust on the fly to sudden changes in trade policies, as the Trump administration has rolled out sweeping tariffs and export controls, and countries including China have retaliated against those measures in kind.

Everstream anticipates this chaotic trade environment to persist in 2026, and advises companies to prepare for more tariff adjustments, more export controls stemming from national security concerns, and ongoing policy adjustments that could influence sourcing choices and investment decisions.

Extreme weather was flagged as the second most prevalent risk this year, in the wake of a 2025 summer where heat, droughts and flooding resulted in an estimated €43 billion ($50 billion) in losses in Europe. Globally, agricultural supply chains have been particularly impacted in recent years, with the world's 2025 wheat harvest coming in 18% below its annual average, while the price of cacao soared by nearly 300% between late 2024 and early 2025 as a result of extreme drought conditions along the Ivory Coast.

Everstream flagged crumbling infrastructure as the next biggest concern, with critical ports, bridges, power grids and transportation networks aging rapidly and facing unprecedented strain. A September 2025 analysis from McKinsey estimated that a global $106 trillion investment in infrastructure by 2040 is required to meet current needs, with logistics and transportation making up the largest portion of that investment at $36 trillion.

Cyberattacks rounded out Everstream's list of supply chain risks for the new year, after attacks on carriers, 3PLs and other logistics providers surged by 61% between 2024 and 2025. This was driven by a "fundamental shift" in the threat landscape, as cyberattacks became more sophisticated, and state-sponsored actors from Russia, China and Iran coordinated campaigns against critical maritime systems.

The risk intelligence company also published a review of how its 2025 predictions played out a year later, noting, among other things, that its anticipation of a crackdown on forced labour in the supply chain did not materialize.

Source: Supply Chain Brain

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